AD Fafe x CF Os Belenenses Betting tips for March 9 in Portugal Liga 3

Our betting tip for AD Fafe x CF Os Belenenses, Sunday, 9/3/2025

📅 9/3/2025 15:00

AD Fafe 1.88

X 3.30

CF Os Belenenses 3.83

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for AD Fafe x CF Os Belenenses:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for AD Fafe x CF Os Belenenses

The main points for the tip for AD Fafe x CF Os Belenenses: 👉 If you had bet $100 on AD Fafe in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-147.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on CF Os Belenenses in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-180.0. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, AD Fafe scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, CF Os Belenenses scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 CF Os Belenenses matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, AD Fafe conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, CF Os Belenenses conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Analysis from AD Fafe x CF Os Belenenses for the Portugal Liga 3 – 9 of March

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for AD Fafe x CF Os Belenenses right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1277138 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for AD Fafe x CF Os Belenenses

Is betting on AD Fafe worth it?

🔵 AD Fafe: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 50.55% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.88. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 510 times – having a profit of $448.80;
• And would lose other 490 times – having a loss of -$490.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$41.20 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 27.42% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.30. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 270 times – having a profit of $621.00;
• And would lose other 730 times – having a loss of -$730.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$109.00.

Is betting on CF Os Belenenses worth it?

🔴 CF Os Belenenses: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 22.03% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.83. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 220 times – having a profit of $622.60;
• And would lose other 780 times – losing -$780.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$157.40.

Handicaps analysis for the match AD Fafe x CF Os Belenenses

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 AD Fafe
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for AD Fafe x CF Os Belenenses

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 AD Fafe, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 AD Fafe.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 CF Os Belenenses.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for AD Fafe x CF Os Belenenses

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.