AD Guanacasteca x Alajuelense Betting tips for April 13 in Costa Rica Primera Division

Our betting tip for AD Guanacasteca x Alajuelense, Sunday, 13/4/2025

📅 13/4/2025 21:00

AD Guanacasteca 5.12

X 3.52

Alajuelense 1.61

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for AD Guanacasteca x Alajuelense:

🔮 Alajuelense wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Alajuelense, you can win up to $805.00!

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Some important points for the tip for AD Guanacasteca x Alajuelense: 👉 If you had bet $100 on AD Guanacasteca in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $340.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Alajuelense in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-7.0. 👉 AD Guanacasteca did not score any goals in the last 3 matches as home team. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Alajuelense scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Alajuelense, AD Guanacasteca scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 7 AD Guanacasteca matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Alajuelense conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 road matches, Alajuelense has not lost any of them. 👉 AD Guanacasteca has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Alajuelense playing at home.

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Analysis from AD Guanacasteca x Alajuelense for the Costa Rica Primera Division – 13 of April

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for AD Guanacasteca x Alajuelense right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1302894 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for AD Guanacasteca x Alajuelense

Should you bet on AD Guanacasteca?

🔵 AD Guanacasteca: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 5.49% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.12. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 50 times – this would give you a profit of $206.00
• And would lose other 950 times – losing -$950.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$744.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 16.25% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.52. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 160 times – profiting $403.20;
• And would have lost other 840 times – with a loss of -$840.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$436.80.

Is it a good idea to bet on Alajuelense?

🔴 Alajuelense: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 78.26% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.61. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 780 times – having a profit of $475.80;
• And would lose other 220 times – having a loss of -$220.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$255.80.

Handicaps analysis for the match AD Guanacasteca x Alajuelense

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.0 AD Guanacasteca
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for AD Guanacasteca x Alajuelense

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +1.0 AD Guanacasteca, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.75 AD Guanacasteca.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.75 Alajuelense.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for AD Guanacasteca x Alajuelense

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.