| 📅 15/1/2022 16:00 |
 AD Hogar Alcarreno3.41 |
X 3.00 |
Miguelturreño  2.05 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for AD Hogar Alcarreno x Miguelturreño:
👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for AD Hogar Alcarreno x Miguelturreño
📊 You can also check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for AD Hogar Alcarreno x Miguelturreño
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Analysis from AD Hogar Alcarreno x Miguelturreño for the Spain Tercera Group 18 – 15 of January
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🏟️ AD Hogar Alcarreno X Miguelturreño – Spain Tercera Group 18 |
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for AD Hogar Alcarreno x Miguelturreño right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 287992 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for AD Hogar Alcarreno x Miguelturreño
Is it worth betting on AD Hogar Alcarreno?
🔵 AD Hogar Alcarreno: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 18.97% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.41. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 190 times – profiting $457.90;
- And would have lost other 810 times – with a loss of -$810.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$352.10.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 33.03% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 330 times – this would give you a profit of $660.00
- And would have lost other 670 times – with a loss of -$670.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$10.00.
Should you bet on Miguelturreño?
🔴 Miguelturreño: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 48.01% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.05. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 480 times – having a profit of $504.00;
- And would lose other 520 times – having a loss of -$520.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$16.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match AD Hogar Alcarreno x Miguelturreño
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 AD Hogar Alcarreno
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for AD Hogar Alcarreno x Miguelturreño
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 AD Hogar Alcarreno and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 AD Hogar Alcarreno. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for AD Hogar Alcarreno x Miguelturreño
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.50 goals.
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Written by
Humberto Alves
Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.
> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
