AD Llerenense x Arroyo CP Betting tips for September 29 in Spain Tercera Group 14

Our betting tip for AD Llerenense x Arroyo CP, Sunday, 29/9/2024

📅 29/9/2024 12:30

AD Llerenense 1.65

X 3.55

Arroyo CP 4.40

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for AD Llerenense x Arroyo CP:

🔮 AD Llerenense wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on AD Llerenense, you can win up to $825.00!

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The main points for the tip for AD Llerenense x Arroyo CP: 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, AD Llerenense scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between AD Llerenense x Arroyo CP, with AD Llerenense as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Arroyo CP conceded at least 2 goal(s). 👉 AD Llerenense is good playing home: it has 3 wins in a row in its last matches at home. 👉 AD Llerenense has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Arroyo CP playing at home. 👉 It is not a good time for Arroyo CP as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

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Analysis from AD Llerenense x Arroyo CP for the Spain Tercera Group 14 – 29 of September

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for AD Llerenense x Arroyo CP right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1190630 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for AD Llerenense x Arroyo CP

Is it a good idea to bet on AD Llerenense?

🔵 AD Llerenense: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 72.35%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.65. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 720 times – this would give you a profit of $468.00
• And would have lost other 280 times – with a loss of -$280.00 because of them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$188.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 16.76% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.55. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 170 times – having a profit of $433.50;
• And would have lost other 830 times – with a loss of -$830.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$396.50.

Is it a good idea to bet on Arroyo CP?

🔴 Arroyo CP: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 10.89% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 110 times – this would give you a profit of $374.00
• And would lose other 890 times – losing -$890.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$516.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match AD Llerenense x Arroyo CP

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 AD Llerenense
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for AD Llerenense x Arroyo CP

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 AD Llerenense, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 AD Llerenense.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.75 Arroyo CP.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for AD Llerenense x Arroyo CP

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.