📊 Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for Al Gharafa x Umm Salal
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Analysis from Al Gharafa x Umm Salal for the Qatar Stars League – 18 of January
🏟️ Al Gharafa X Umm Salal – Qatar Stars League
When the best bet on Al Gharafa x Umm Salal is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 288868 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Al Gharafa x Umm Salal
Should you bet on Al Gharafa?
🔵 Al Gharafa: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 20.78% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.76. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 210 times – this would give you a profit of $370.13
- And would lose other 790 times – losing -$790.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$419.87.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 29.17%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.48. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 290 times – profiting $717.75;
- And would lose other 710 times – having a loss of -$710.00 with them.
Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$7.75, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.
Is it worth betting on Umm Salal?
🔴 Umm Salal: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 50.05%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.24. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 500 times – this would give you a profit of $620.00
- And would lose other 500 times – having a loss of -$500.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$120.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Al Gharafa x Umm Salal
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Al Gharafa
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Al Gharafa x Umm Salal
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Al Gharafa and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 Al Gharafa.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.25 Al Gharafa.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Al Gharafa x Umm Salal
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.75 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves