📊 Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Alajuelense x Guadalupe FC
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Analysis from Alajuelense x Guadalupe FC for the Costa Rica Primera Division – 16 of January
🏟️ Alajuelense X Guadalupe FC – Costa Rica Primera Division
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Alajuelense x Guadalupe FC right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 287992 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Alajuelense x Guadalupe FC
Is betting on Alajuelense worth it?
🔵 Alajuelense: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 78.49% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.36. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 780 times – this would give you a profit of $280.80
- And would have lost other 220 times – with a loss of -$220.00 because of them.
So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$60.80.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 13.18% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.70. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 130 times – this would give you a profit of $480.48
- And would lose other 870 times – losing -$870.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$389.52.
Should you bet on Guadalupe FC?
🔴 Guadalupe FC: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 8.33% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 6.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 80 times – having a profit of $440.00;
- And would lose other 920 times – losing -$920.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$480.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Alajuelense x Guadalupe FC
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 Alajuelense
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Alajuelense x Guadalupe FC
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.5 Alajuelense and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.25 Alajuelense.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.25 Alajuelense.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Alajuelense x Guadalupe FC
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.
Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.
Our tips are also on YouTube
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves