📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Alfreton Town x Blyth Spartans
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Analysis from Alfreton Town x Blyth Spartans for the England National League North – 22 of January
🏟️ Alfreton Town X Blyth Spartans – England National League North
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Alfreton Town x Blyth Spartans right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 290605 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Alfreton Town x Blyth Spartans
Should you bet on Alfreton Town?
🔵 Alfreton Town: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 87.78% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.47. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 880 times – having a profit of $413.60;
- And would lose other 120 times – losing -$120.00 with them.
So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$293.60.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 6.73% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.26. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 70 times – this would give you a profit of $228.48
- And would lose other 930 times – having a loss of -$930.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$701.52.
Should you bet on Blyth Spartans?
🔴 Blyth Spartans: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 5.5% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 50 times – profiting $220.00;
- And would lose other 950 times – having a loss of -$950.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$730.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Alfreton Town x Blyth Spartans
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Alfreton Town
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Alfreton Town x Blyth Spartans
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Alfreton Town, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.0 Alfreton Town.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.0 Blyth Spartans.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Alfreton Town x Blyth Spartans
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.00 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves