Alverca x Leixoes Betting tips for September 29 in Portugal Segunda Liga

Our betting tip for Alverca x Leixoes, Sunday, 29/9/2024

📅 29/9/2024 10:00

Alverca 2.72

X 3.10

Leixoes 2.40

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Alverca x Leixoes:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Alverca x Leixoes

The main points for the tip for Alverca x Leixoes: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Alverca in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-113.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Leixoes in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $88.0. 👉 Leixoes did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as away team. 👉 In the last 3 Leixoes matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Alverca conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 8 road matches, Leixoes has not lost any of them.

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Analysis from Alverca x Leixoes for the Portugal Segunda Liga – 29 of September

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Alverca and Leixoes.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1190630 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Alverca x Leixoes

Should you bet on Alverca?

🔵 Alverca: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 25.24%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.72. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 250 times – this would give you a profit of $430.00
• And would have lost other 750 times – with a loss of -$750.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$320.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 26.4% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 260 times – profiting $546.00;
• And would lose other 740 times – losing -$740.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$194.00.

Should you bet on Leixoes?

🔴 Leixoes: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 48.36%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 480 times – this would give you a profit of $672.00
• And would lose other 520 times – losing -$520.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$152.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Handicaps analysis for the match Alverca x Leixoes

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Alverca
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Alverca x Leixoes

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Alverca, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Alverca.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.0 Leixoes.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Alverca x Leixoes

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.