📊 Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Amurrio x Lagun Onak
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Analysis from Amurrio x Lagun Onak for the Spain Tercera Group 4 – 15 of January
🏟️ Amurrio X Lagun Onak – Spain Tercera Group 4
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Amurrio x Lagun Onak right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 287992 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Amurrio x Lagun Onak
Should you bet on Amurrio?
🔵 Amurrio: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 45.02% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.03. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 450 times – this would give you a profit of $463.50
- And would lose other 550 times – losing -$550.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$86.50.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 34.16% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.02. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 340 times – profiting $686.80;
- And would lose other 660 times – losing -$660.00 with them.
Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$26.80, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.
Is it worth betting on Lagun Onak?
🔴 Lagun Onak: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 20.82% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.47. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 210 times – this would give you a profit of $518.70
- And would lose other 790 times – having a loss of -$790.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$271.30.
Handicaps analysis for the match Amurrio x Lagun Onak
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Amurrio
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Amurrio x Lagun Onak
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Amurrio, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Amurrio.
The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Amurrio x Lagun Onak
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
Our tips are also on YouTube
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves