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ARC Oleiros x GD Peniche Betting tips for January 16 in Portugal Campeonato Nacional

Our betting tip for ARC Oleiros x GD Peniche, Sunday, 16/1/2022
πŸ“… 16/1/2022
15:00
ARC Oleiros
2.03
X
3.01
GD Peniche
3.44

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for ARC Oleiros x GD Peniche:

πŸ‘Ž Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for ARC Oleiros x GD Peniche

πŸ“Š Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for ARC Oleiros x GD Peniche

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Analysis from ARC Oleiros x GD Peniche for the Portugal Campeonato Nacional – 16 of January

🏟️ ARC Oleiros X GD Peniche – Portugal Campeonato Nacional
πŸ“… 16 of January, 2022 – 15:00
πŸ”΅ ARC Oleiros – Winning probability: 45.95% | Fair line: 2.18
βšͺ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 31.46% | Fair line: 3.18
πŸ”΄ GD Peniche – Winning probability: 22.59% | Fair line: 4.43
βš– Handicap 1×2: 0.0 ARC Oleiros
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
β›³ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for ARC Oleiros x GD Peniche right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 288046 matches on the betting prognostics platform Betfellows , in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for ARC Oleiros x GD Peniche

Is it worth betting on ARC Oleiros?

πŸ”΅ ARC Oleiros: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 45.95% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.03. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 460 times – this would give you a profit of $473.80
  • And would lose other 540 times – having a loss of -$540.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of πŸ’°-$66.20.

Is it worth betting on draw?

βšͺ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 31.46% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.01. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 310 times – having a profit of $623.10;
  • And would have lost other 690 times – with a loss of -$690.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of πŸ’°-$66.90.

Is it a good idea to bet on GD Peniche?

πŸ”΄ GD Peniche: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 22.59%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.44. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 230 times – profiting $560.05;
  • And would have lost other 770 times – with a loss of -$770.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of πŸ’°-$209.95.

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Handicaps analysis for the match ARC Oleiros x GD Peniche

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

βš– Handicap 1×2: 0.0 ARC Oleiros
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for ARC Oleiros x GD Peniche

βš– Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 ARC Oleiros and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 ARC Oleiros.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 GD Peniche.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for ARC Oleiros x GD Peniche

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

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You can check out our tips on YouTube

Our tipsters are also on our betting tips channel on YouTube analysing the main bets for Sunday. Right above you can check our latest predictions and do not forget to subscribe to our channel!

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves