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Home Β» Predictions Β» Others Β» Argentino Merlo x San Martin De Burzaco Betting tips for April 13 in Argentina Primera B Metropolitana
Sunday, 13 April 2025, 18h30 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana
Argentino Merlo Argentino Merlo
PREDICTION No tip
San Martin De Burzaco San Martin De Burzaco
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Argentino Merlo x San Martin De Burzaco Betting tips for April 13 in Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

Our betting tip for Argentino Merlo x San Martin De Burzaco, Sunday, 13/4/2025
πŸ“… 13/4/2025
18:30
Argentino Merlo Argentino Merlo
2.38
X
2.81
San Martin De Burzaco San Martin De Burzaco
3.13

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Argentino Merlo x San Martin De Burzaco:

πŸ‘Ž Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Argentino Merlo x San Martin De Burzaco

Important information for your tip for Argentino Merlo x San Martin De Burzaco:

πŸ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Argentino Merlo in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-300.0.
πŸ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on San Martin De Burzaco in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-210.0.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 4 matches as the home team against San Martin De Burzaco, Argentino Merlo scored at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ In the last 3 Argentino Merlo matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 7 matches as the away team, San Martin De Burzaco conceded at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ Playing as the home team, Argentino Merlo conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against San Martin De Burzaco.
πŸ‘‰ Argentino Merlo has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against San Martin De Burzaco playing at home.

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Summary

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Analysis from Argentino Merlo x San Martin De Burzaco for the Argentina Primera B Metropolitana – 13 of April

🏟️ Argentino Merlo X San Martin De Burzaco – Argentina Primera B Metropolitana
πŸ“… 13 of April, 2025 – 18:30
πŸ”΅ Argentino Merlo – Winning probability: 41.84% | Fair line: 2.39
βšͺ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 33.95% | Fair line: 2.95
πŸ”΄ San Martin De Burzaco – Winning probability: 24.21% | Fair line: 4.13
βš– Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Argentino Merlo
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
β›³ Expected corner kicks: 9.25 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Argentino Merlo x San Martin De Burzaco right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1302187 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Argentino Merlo x San Martin De Burzaco

Is it a good idea to bet on Argentino Merlo?

πŸ”΅ Argentino Merlo: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 41.84% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.38. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 420 times – profiting $579.60;
  • And would lose other 580 times – having a loss of -$580.00 with them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just πŸ’°$0.40. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Is betting on draw worth it?

βšͺ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 33.95% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.81. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 340 times – profiting $615.40;
  • And would lose other 660 times – having a loss of -$660.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of πŸ’°-$44.60.

Is betting on San Martin De Burzaco worth it?

πŸ”΄ San Martin De Burzaco: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 24.21% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.13. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 240 times – profiting $511.20;
  • And would have lost other 760 times – with a loss of -$760.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of πŸ’°-$248.80.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Argentino Merlo x San Martin De Burzaco

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

βš– Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Argentino Merlo
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Argentino Merlo x San Martin De Burzaco

βš– Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Argentino Merlo, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Argentino Merlo.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 San Martin De Burzaco.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Argentino Merlo x San Martin De Burzaco

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 1.75 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 1.75 goals.

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Written by
Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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