Argentinos Jrs x Belgrano Betting tips for November 11 in Argentina Liga Profesional

Our betting tip for Argentinos Jrs x Belgrano, Tuesday, 11/11/2025

📅 11/11/2025 00:15

Argentinos Jrs 1.65

X 3.52

Belgrano 5.37

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Argentinos Jrs x Belgrano:

🔮 Belgrano wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Belgrano, you can win up to $2685.00!

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The main points for the tip for Argentinos Jrs x Belgrano:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Argentinos Jrs in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $260.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Belgrano in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $355.0.
👉 Argentinos Jrs is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 3 home matches, it had at least 61.00% of possession.
👉 In the last 4 road matches, Belgrano has not lost any of them.

🤖 ChatGPT’s take on our prediction for Argentinos Jrs vs Belgrano:

Lets analyze the match between Argentinos Jrs and Belgrano, which will be played at Diego Armando Maradona Stadium, home of Argentinos Juniors. Based on recent statistics, Argentinos has a very strong home performance: scored 11 goals and conceded only 2 in the last 5 games at their stadium, with 4 wins and no losses. Additionally, their average ball possession is high (58%) and they create more chances (16 shots per game) than they concede (8). Belgrano, on the other hand, shows more modest numbers away from home: scored fewer goals (7) and conceded more (5), with only 2 wins in the last 5 away games.

Calculating fair odds from the median odds adjusted for the bookmakers margin gives approximately: Argentinos Jr victory around 56%, a draw about 27%, and Belgrano victory near 17%. This makes sense given the offensive dominance of the home team on their turf.

However, when crossing these probabilities with recent news 📰 we see that Argentinos Juniors is motivated despite their penalty shootout loss in the Copa Argentina final — they are still fighting for a Libertadores spot in the annual championship. The team wants to recover to keep this chance alive. On the other hand, Belgrano has shown mixed results recently with many goalless draws in Clausura, indicating offensive difficulties.

📈 In the league table, the Argentinians are better positioned and pressured to win to stay in the race for international spots; meanwhile, Belgrano seems to be in a less inspired offensive phase.

Based on this, my analysis suggests slightly higher fair odds for the home team’s victory (~1.75) due to their demonstrated offensive strength at home combined with the urgent need for points; a draw is reasonable close to current odds (~3.6); while the away victory appears underestimated at the offered odds (~5.9). However, I do not see enough positive expected value in the final market odds to justify any bet other than Argentinos Jr’s victory, which should still be approached with caution as the odds are relatively low.

The Bets Kenya model indicates a strong preference for the home team’s victory with high expected value (+23%), and I fully agree as the data confirms this clear superiority in this specific matchup — therefore, my recommendation is to bet on the home team’s win! 🎯

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Argentinos Jrs x Belgrano?

If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2025. You just have to click, deposit and bet:

Analysis from Argentinos Jrs x Belgrano for the Argentina Liga Profesional – 11 of November

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Argentinos Jrs x Belgrano right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1435951 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Latest news about Argentinos Jrs x Belgrano

Argentinos Juniors: Argentinos Juniors was defeated 5-3 on penalties after a 2-2 draw in the 2025 Copa Argentina final against Independiente Rivadavia, losing the direct spot for the Copa Libertadores; despite the loss, the team is fourth in the annual table with 51 points, just one point behind River and still in contention for a playoff spot in the Libertadores if they win the remaining matches against Belgrano and Estudiantes, and aim for a spot in the Clausura playoffs. After the defeat, president Cristian Malaspina called for calm and confidence, while fans criticized goalkeeper Sergio Romero.

Belgrano: Belgranos recent performance has been mixed, with the team drawing against Tigre (0-0) and Talleres (0-0) in the Clausura Tournament, with Lucas Zelarayán leading the team and receiving some yellow cards in these matches. In the Copa Argentina, the club started with a 2-0 victory over Independiente, then beat Newell’s Old Boys 3-1 in the quarter-finals, but was defeated 2-1 by Argentinos Juniors in the semi-finals. The next league game is scheduled for 9:15 PM at Julio César Villagra Stadium against Tigre.

Table analysis for the match between Argentinos Jrs x Belgrano

Argentinos Juniors: Currently, the team is in 12th place in Group A in the Argentina Liga Profesional, with 18 points accumulated, experiencing a slight drop in the standings (-6 in position change). With 5 wins, 3 losses, and 6 draws, they have a positive goal difference (+3). Qualifying for the playoffs is an important goal, and with 14 rounds played out of 27, the team still has chances but needs to earn points to avoid falling behind. A victory against Belgrano would be crucial to get closer to the qualification zone and reverse the current downward trend. A draw or loss would make the situation more difficult, increasing pressure for upcoming matches.

Belgrano: The team is in 7th place in Group A, with 19 points, showing stability in the standings (no change in position). With 4 wins, 3 losses, and 7 draws, and a goal difference of +3, Belgrano is well positioned to seek qualification for the playoff phase. A win would confirm their presence among the top teams and increase the lead over direct competitors, including Argentinos Juniors. For Belgrano, the game is highly important, as a negative result could allow opponents to close the gap or catch up, complicating the fight for access to the next phase.

Summary: The match between Argentinos Juniors and Belgrano is of high importance for both teams in the fight for qualification in Group A of the Argentina Liga Profesional. Argentinos Juniors desperately needs a win to avoid stagnation in the table and reignite their campaign towards the playoffs, while Belgrano aims to consolidate its privileged position. The result could significantly impact both teams prospects in the championship, making this a decisive game in the middle stretch of the qualifying phase. ⚽🔥

Tips for the 1×2 market for Argentinos Jrs x Belgrano

Is betting on Argentinos Jrs worth it?

🔵 Argentinos Jrs: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 62.2%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.65. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 620 times – having a profit of $403.00;
• And would lose other 380 times – losing -$380.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$23.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 18.13% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.52. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 180 times – having a profit of $453.60;
• And would lose other 820 times – having a loss of -$820.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$366.40.

Is it a good idea to bet on Belgrano?

🔴 Belgrano: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 19.67% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.37. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 200 times – having a profit of $874.00;
• And would have lost other 800 times – with a loss of -$800.00 because of them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$74.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Argentinos Jrs x Belgrano

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Argentinos Jrs
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Argentinos Jrs x Belgrano

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Argentinos Jrs, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 Argentinos Jrs.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.75 Belgrano.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Argentinos Jrs x Belgrano

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.