Arronches e Benfica x Sertanense Betting tips for March 9 in Portugal Campeonato Nacional

Our betting tip for Arronches e Benfica x Sertanense, Sunday, 9/3/2025

📅 9/3/2025 15:00

Arronches e Benfica 1.38

X 4.00

Sertanense 7.75

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Arronches e Benfica x Sertanense:

🔮 Arronches e Benfica wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Arronches e Benfica, you can win up to $690.00!

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The main points for the tip for Arronches e Benfica x Sertanense: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Arronches e Benfica in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $130.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Sertanense in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-130.0. 👉 Arronches e Benfica did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as home team. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Sertanense scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Arronches e Benfica matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 7 Sertanense matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 road matches, Sertanense has not lost any of them.

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Analysis from Arronches e Benfica x Sertanense for the Portugal Campeonato Nacional – 9 of March

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Arronches e Benfica x Sertanense right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1277138 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Arronches e Benfica x Sertanense

Should you bet on Arronches e Benfica?

🔵 Arronches e Benfica: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 83.75%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.38. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 840 times – having a profit of $319.20;
• And would lose other 160 times – having a loss of -$160.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$159.20.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 13.65%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 140 times – profiting $420.00;
• And would lose other 860 times – losing -$860.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$440.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Sertanense?

🔴 Sertanense: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 2.6% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 7.75. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 30 times – profiting $202.50;
• And would lose other 970 times – losing -$970.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$767.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Arronches e Benfica x Sertanense

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Arronches e Benfica
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Arronches e Benfica x Sertanense

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.0 Arronches e Benfica, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.25 Arronches e Benfica.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.25 Sertanense.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Arronches e Benfica x Sertanense

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.