ASD Seravezza Calcio x San Donato Tavarnelle Betting tips for September 29 in Italy Serie D

Our betting tip for ASD Seravezza Calcio x San Donato Tavarnelle, Sunday, 29/9/2024

📅 29/9/2024 10:00

ASD Seravezza Calcio 1.55

X 3.70

San Donato Tavarnelle 5.25

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for ASD Seravezza Calcio x San Donato Tavarnelle:

🔮 ASD Seravezza Calcio wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on ASD Seravezza Calcio, you can win up to $775.00!

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The main points for the tip for ASD Seravezza Calcio x San Donato Tavarnelle: 👉 If you had bet $100 on ASD Seravezza Calcio in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-360.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on San Donato Tavarnelle in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, ASD Seravezza Calcio scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against San Donato Tavarnelle, ASD Seravezza Calcio scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, ASD Seravezza Calcio conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, San Donato Tavarnelle conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, ASD Seravezza Calcio conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against San Donato Tavarnelle. 👉 ASD Seravezza Calcio has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against San Donato Tavarnelle playing at home.

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Analysis from ASD Seravezza Calcio x San Donato Tavarnelle for the Italy Serie D – 29 of September

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for ASD Seravezza Calcio x San Donato Tavarnelle right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1190630 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for ASD Seravezza Calcio x San Donato Tavarnelle

Should you bet on ASD Seravezza Calcio?

🔵 ASD Seravezza Calcio: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 72.64% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.55. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 730 times – this would give you a profit of $401.50
• And would lose other 270 times – having a loss of -$270.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$131.50.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 18.66% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.70. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 190 times – this would give you a profit of $513.00
• And would lose other 810 times – losing -$810.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$297.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on San Donato Tavarnelle?

🔴 San Donato Tavarnelle: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 8.69% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.25. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 90 times – profiting $382.50;
• And would have lost other 910 times – with a loss of -$910.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$527.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match ASD Seravezza Calcio x San Donato Tavarnelle

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 ASD Seravezza Calcio
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for ASD Seravezza Calcio x San Donato Tavarnelle

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 ASD Seravezza Calcio, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.0 ASD Seravezza Calcio.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.0 San Donato Tavarnelle.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for ASD Seravezza Calcio x San Donato Tavarnelle

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.