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Home » Predictions » Others » ASD Ugento x FBC Gravina Betting tips for March 9 in Italy Serie D
Sunday, 09 March 2025, 14h00 Italy Serie D
ASD Ugento ASD Ugento
PREDICTION No tip
FBC Gravina FBC Gravina
Don't miss this prediction!

ASD Ugento x FBC Gravina Betting tips for March 9 in Italy Serie D

Our betting tip for ASD Ugento x FBC Gravina, Sunday, 9/3/2025
📅 9/3/2025
14:00
ASD Ugento ASD Ugento
2.45
X
3.15
FBC Gravina FBC Gravina
2.60

Our algorithm has selected this tip for ASD Ugento x FBC Gravina:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for ASD Ugento x FBC Gravina

Important information for your tip for ASD Ugento x FBC Gravina:

👉 If you had bet $100 on FBC Gravina in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, ASD Ugento conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, FBC Gravina conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Summary

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Analysis from ASD Ugento x FBC Gravina for the Italy Serie D – 9 of March

🏟️ ASD Ugento X FBC Gravina – Italy Serie D
📅 9 of March, 2025 – 14:00
🔵 ASD Ugento – Winning probability: 42.00% | Fair line: 2.38
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 28.01% | Fair line: 3.57
🔴 FBC Gravina – Winning probability: 29.99% | Fair line: 3.33
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 ASD Ugento
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 8.75 corner kicks

When the best bet on ASD Ugento x FBC Gravina is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1277138 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for ASD Ugento x FBC Gravina

Is it worth betting on ASD Ugento?

🔵 ASD Ugento: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 42.0% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.45. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 420 times – profiting $609.00;
  • And would have lost other 580 times – with a loss of -$580.00 because of them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$29.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is betting on draw worth it?

draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 28.01% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.15. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 280 times – this would give you a profit of $602.00
  • And would lose other 720 times – losing -$720.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$118.00.

Is it worth betting on FBC Gravina?

🔴 FBC Gravina: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 29.99% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.60. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 300 times – profiting $480.00;
  • And would have lost other 700 times – with a loss of -$700.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$220.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match ASD Ugento x FBC Gravina

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 ASD Ugento
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for ASD Ugento x FBC Gravina

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 ASD Ugento, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 ASD Ugento.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for ASD Ugento x FBC Gravina

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

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Written by
Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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