Athletic Bilbao x Barcelona Betting tips for January 8 in Spain Super Cup

Our betting tip for Athletic Bilbao x Barcelona, Wednesday, 8/1/2025

📅 8/1/2025 19:00

Athletic Bilbao 3.96

X 3.80

Barcelona 1.85

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Athletic Bilbao x Barcelona:

🔮 Barcelona wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Barcelona, you can win up to $925.00!

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The main points for the tip for Athletic Bilbao x Barcelona: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Athletic Bilbao in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $350.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Barcelona in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-28.0. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Athletic Bilbao scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Barcelona scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 Barcelona matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 Athletic Bilbao is good playing home: it has 4 wins in a row in its last matches at home. 👉 In the last 5 road matches, Barcelona has not lost any of them.

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Analysis from Athletic Bilbao x Barcelona for the Spain Super Cup – 8 of January

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Athletic Bilbao x Barcelona right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1243711 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Athletic Bilbao x Barcelona

Should you bet on Athletic Bilbao?

🔵 Athletic Bilbao: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 19.67%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.96. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 200 times – profiting $592.00;
• And would lose other 800 times – losing -$800.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$208.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 16.17%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.80. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 160 times – profiting $448.00;
• And would lose other 840 times – losing -$840.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$392.00.

Should you bet on Barcelona?

🔴 Barcelona: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 64.16% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.85. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 640 times – profiting $544.00;
• And would lose other 360 times – having a loss of -$360.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$184.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Athletic Bilbao x Barcelona

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Athletic Bilbao
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Athletic Bilbao x Barcelona

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Athletic Bilbao, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.5 Athletic Bilbao.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.5 Athletic Bilbao.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Athletic Bilbao x Barcelona

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.75 goals.