Athletic Club MG x Gremio Betting tips for March 12 in Copa do Brasil
| 📅 12/3/2025 22:30 |
 Athletic Club MG4.20 |
X 3.28 |
Gremio  1.80 |
This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Athletic Club MG x Gremio:
🔮 Gremio wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Gremio, you can win up to $900.00!
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Some important points for the tip for Athletic Club MG x Gremio: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Athletic Club MG in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $386.0. |
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Analysis from Athletic Club MG x Gremio for the Copa do Brasil – 12 of March
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🏟️ Athletic Club MG X Gremio – Copa do Brasil |
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Athletic Club MG x Gremio right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1280484 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Athletic Club MG x Gremio
Should you bet on Athletic Club MG?
🔵 Athletic Club MG: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 16.84% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 170 times – profiting $544.00;
- And would have lost other 830 times – with a loss of -$830.00 because of them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$286.00.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 10.09%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.28. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 100 times – profiting $228.00;
- And would have lost other 900 times – with a loss of -$900.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$672.00.
Is betting on Gremio worth it?
🔴 Gremio: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 73.07%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.80. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 730 times – this would give you a profit of $584.00
- And would lose other 270 times – losing -$270.00 with them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$314.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Athletic Club MG x Gremio
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 Athletic Club MG
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Athletic Club MG x Gremio
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.75 Athletic Club MG and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.5 Athletic Club MG.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Gremio.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Athletic Club MG x Gremio
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 1.00, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
