Atletico CP Lisbon x Sporting Covilha Betting tips for September 29 in Portugal Liga 3

Our betting tip for Atletico CP Lisbon x Sporting Covilha, Sunday, 29/9/2024

📅 29/9/2024 11:00

Atletico CP Lisbon 1.80

X 3.25

Sporting Covilha 4.07

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Atletico CP Lisbon x Sporting Covilha:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Atletico CP Lisbon x Sporting Covilha

The main points for the tip for Atletico CP Lisbon x Sporting Covilha: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Atletico CP Lisbon in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $284.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Sporting Covilha in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-230.0. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Sporting Covilha, Atletico CP Lisbon scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Sporting Covilha conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Atletico CP Lisbon conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Sporting Covilha.

Looking for another bookie to bet on Atletico CP Lisbon x Sporting Covilha?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2024, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Atletico CP Lisbon x Sporting Covilha:

Analysis from Atletico CP Lisbon x Sporting Covilha for the Portugal Liga 3 – 29 of September

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Atletico CP Lisbon x Sporting Covilha right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1190630 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Atletico CP Lisbon x Sporting Covilha

Is betting on Atletico CP Lisbon worth it?

🔵 Atletico CP Lisbon: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 59.78% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.80. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 600 times – profiting $480.00;
• And would lose other 400 times – having a loss of -$400.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$80.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 26.15%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.25. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 260 times – having a profit of $585.00;
• And would lose other 740 times – losing -$740.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$155.00.

Is betting on Sporting Covilha worth it?

🔴 Sporting Covilha: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 14.07% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.07. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 140 times – having a profit of $429.80;
• And would lose other 860 times – losing -$860.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$430.20.

Handicaps analysis for the match Atletico CP Lisbon x Sporting Covilha

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Atletico CP Lisbon
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Atletico CP Lisbon x Sporting Covilha

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Atletico CP Lisbon and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Atletico CP Lisbon.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 Sporting Covilha.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Atletico CP Lisbon x Sporting Covilha

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.