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Home » Predictions » Others » Atletico Madrid x Getafe Betting tips for February 4 in Spain Copa del Rey
Tuesday, 04 February 2025, 20h30 Spain Copa del Rey
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid
PREDICTION Atletico Madrid wins Probability 82% 1 X 2
Getafe Getafe
ODD: @1.47 Don't miss this prediction!

Atletico Madrid x Getafe Betting tips for February 4 in Spain Copa del Rey

Our betting tip for Atletico Madrid x Getafe, Tuesday, 4/2/2025
📅 4/2/2025
20:30
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid
1.47
X
4.15
Getafe Getafe
7.00

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Atletico Madrid x Getafe:

🔮 Atletico Madrid wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Atletico Madrid, you can win up to $735.00!

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The main points for the tip for Atletico Madrid x Getafe:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Atletico Madrid in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $153.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Getafe in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $875.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Atletico Madrid scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Getafe scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Getafe, Atletico Madrid scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Getafe is hard to beat as a visitor: it has 4 wins in a row in its last road matches.
👉 Atletico Madrid has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Getafe playing at home.

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Summary

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Analysis from Atletico Madrid x Getafe for the Spain Copa del Rey – 4 of February

🏟️ Atletico Madrid X Getafe – Spain Copa del Rey
📅 4 of February, 2025 – 20:30
🔵 Atletico Madrid – Winning probability: 82.18% | Fair line: 1.22
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 10.55% | Fair line: 9.48
🔴 Getafe – Winning probability: 7.27% | Fair line: 13.75
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Atletico Madrid
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.25 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Atletico Madrid x Getafe right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1257615 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Atletico Madrid x Getafe

Is betting on Atletico Madrid worth it?

🔵 Atletico Madrid: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 82.18% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.47. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 820 times – this would give you a profit of $385.40
  • And would lose other 180 times – having a loss of -$180.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$205.40.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 10.55% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.15. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 110 times – profiting $346.50;
  • And would lose other 890 times – losing -$890.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$543.50.

Is it a good idea to bet on Getafe?

🔴 Getafe: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 7.27%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 7.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 70 times – this would give you a profit of $420.00
  • And would have lost other 930 times – with a loss of -$930.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$510.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Atletico Madrid x Getafe

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Atletico Madrid
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Atletico Madrid x Getafe

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.0 Atletico Madrid, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.25 Atletico Madrid.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.25 Getafe.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Atletico Madrid x Getafe

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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