Atletico Madrid x Real Madrid Betting tips for September 29 in Spain La Liga

Our betting tip for Atletico Madrid x Real Madrid, Sunday, 29/9/2024

📅 29/9/2024 16:00

Atletico Madrid 2.87

X 3.40

Real Madrid 2.37

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Atletico Madrid x Real Madrid:

🔮 Real Madrid wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Real Madrid, you can win up to $1185.00!

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Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

The main points for the tip for Atletico Madrid x Real Madrid: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Atletico Madrid in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $166.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Real Madrid in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-152.0. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Real Madrid scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Real Madrid matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Atletico Madrid x Real Madrid, with Atletico Madrid as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 Playing as the home team, Atletico Madrid conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Real Madrid. 👉 In the last 3 road matches, Real Madrid has not lost any of them.

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Analysis from Atletico Madrid x Real Madrid for the Spain La Liga – 29 of September

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Atletico Madrid x Real Madrid right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1190630 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Atletico Madrid x Real Madrid

Is it a good idea to bet on Atletico Madrid?

🔵 Atletico Madrid: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 26.55% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.87. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 270 times – having a profit of $504.90;
• And would lose other 730 times – losing -$730.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$225.10.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 25.85% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 260 times – this would give you a profit of $624.00
• And would lose other 740 times – losing -$740.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$116.00.

Should you bet on Real Madrid?

🔴 Real Madrid: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 47.6%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.37. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 480 times – this would give you a profit of $657.60
• And would have lost other 520 times – with a loss of -$520.00 because of them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$137.60.

Handicaps analysis for the match Atletico Madrid x Real Madrid

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Atletico Madrid
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Atletico Madrid x Real Madrid

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Atletico Madrid and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 Atletico Madrid.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.25 Atletico Madrid.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Atletico Madrid x Real Madrid

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.75 goals.