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Home » Predictions » Others » Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin Betting tips for November 1 in Colombia Cup
Friday, 01 November 2024, 01h00 Colombia Cup
Atletico Nacional Medellin Atletico Nacional Medellin
PREDICTION Atletico Nacional Medellin wins Probability 58% 1 X 2
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin
ODD: @2.07 Don't miss this prediction!

Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin Betting tips for November 1 in Colombia Cup

Our betting tip for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin, Friday, 1/11/2024
📅 1/11/2024
01:00
Atletico Nacional Medellin Atletico Nacional Medellin
2.07
X
3.20
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin
3.30

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin:

🔮 Atletico Nacional Medellin wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Atletico Nacional Medellin, you can win up to $1035.00!

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The main points for the tip for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Atletico Nacional Medellin in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-82.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Independiente Medellin in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $140.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Atletico Nacional Medellin scored at least 1.0 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Independiente Medellin, Atletico Nacional Medellin scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Atletico Nacional Medellin conceded at least 1.0 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Independiente Medellin conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Atletico Nacional Medellin conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Independiente Medellin.

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Summary

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2024, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin:

Analysis from Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin for the Colombia Cup – 1 of November

🏟️ Atletico Nacional Medellin X Independiente Medellin – Colombia Cup
📅 1 of November, 2024 – 01:00
🔵 Atletico Nacional Medellin – Winning probability: 58.84% | Fair line: 1.7
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 17.92% | Fair line: 5.58
🔴 Independiente Medellin – Winning probability: 23.25% | Fair line: 4.3
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Atletico Nacional Medellin
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.25 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1213279 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin

Is it worth betting on Atletico Nacional Medellin?

🔵 Atletico Nacional Medellin: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 58.84% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.07. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 590 times – profiting $631.30;
  • And would lose other 410 times – having a loss of -$410.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$221.30.

Should you bet on draw?

draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 17.92%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 180 times – having a profit of $396.00;
  • And would have lost other 820 times – with a loss of -$820.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$424.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Independiente Medellin?

🔴 Independiente Medellin: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 23.25% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.30. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 230 times – this would give you a profit of $529.00
  • And would have lost other 770 times – with a loss of -$770.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$241.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Atletico Nacional Medellin
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Atletico Nacional Medellin, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Atletico Nacional Medellin.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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