Aubagne x Bourg-Peronnas Betting tips for March 14 in France National

Our betting tip for Aubagne x Bourg-Peronnas, Friday, 14/3/2025

📅 14/3/2025 18:30

Aubagne 2.25

X 2.90

Bourg-Peronnas 3.20

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Aubagne x Bourg-Peronnas:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Aubagne x Bourg-Peronnas

Important information for your tip for Aubagne x Bourg-Peronnas: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Aubagne in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $70.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Bourg-Peronnas in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $220.0. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Bourg-Peronnas scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Bourg-Peronnas matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Aubagne conceded at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 road matches, Bourg-Peronnas has not lost any of them. 👉 It is not a good time for Aubagne as home team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last home matches.

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Aubagne x Bourg-Peronnas?

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Analysis from Aubagne x Bourg-Peronnas for the France National – 14 of March

When the best bet on Aubagne x Bourg-Peronnas is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1281036 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Aubagne x Bourg-Peronnas

Is it worth betting on Aubagne?

🔵 Aubagne: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 40.0%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.25. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 400 times – profiting $500.00;
• And would lose other 600 times – having a loss of -$600.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$100.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 32.69% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.90. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 330 times – having a profit of $627.00;
• And would have lost other 670 times – with a loss of -$670.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$43.00.

Is betting on Bourg-Peronnas worth it?

🔴 Bourg-Peronnas: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 27.31% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 270 times – having a profit of $594.00;
• And would have lost other 730 times – with a loss of -$730.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$136.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Aubagne x Bourg-Peronnas

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Aubagne
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Aubagne x Bourg-Peronnas

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Aubagne, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Aubagne.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Bourg-Peronnas.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Aubagne x Bourg-Peronnas

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.