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19/1/2022 18:30 |
 Aurrera Ondarroa1.70 |
X 3.25 |
Tolosa  4.15 |
This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Aurrera Ondarroa x Tolosa:
๐ฎ Aurrera Ondarroa wins the match
๐ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Aurrera Ondarroa, you can win up to $852.00!
๐ Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Aurrera Ondarroa x Tolosa
Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Aurrera Ondarroa x Tolosa?
If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Aurrera Ondarroa x Tolosa, no problem. Right below you have the bookies that we used the most in 2022. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:
Analysis from Aurrera Ondarroa x Tolosa for the Spain Tercera Group 4 – 19 of January
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๐๏ธ Aurrera Ondarroa X Tolosa – Spain Tercera Group 4 |
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Aurrera Ondarroa and Tolosa.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 289909 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Aurrera Ondarroa x Tolosa
Is it a good idea to bet on Aurrera Ondarroa?
๐ต Aurrera Ondarroa: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 72.28% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.70. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 720 times – this would give you a profit of $506.88
- And would lose other 280 times – having a loss of -$280.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of ๐ฐ$226.88.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
โช draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 13.29% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.25. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 130 times – profiting $292.50;
- And would lose other 870 times – losing -$870.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of ๐ฐ-$577.50.
Is betting on Tolosa worth it?
๐ด Tolosa: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 14.43% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.15. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 140 times – this would give you a profit of $441.00
- And would lose other 860 times – losing -$860.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of ๐ฐ-$419.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Aurrera Ondarroa x Tolosa
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
โ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Aurrera Ondarroa
โฝ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Aurrera Ondarroa x Tolosa
โ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Aurrera Ondarroa, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Aurrera Ondarroa.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Aurrera Ondarroa.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Aurrera Ondarroa x Tolosa
โฝ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
Our tips are also on YouTube
Keep in mind that our team of bettors is daily on YouTube with complete videos of analysis for the best matches of the day. Check out our bets for this Wednesday right above and subscribe to our betting tips channel.
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Written by
Humberto Alves
Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.
> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
