📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Ayr x Morton
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Analysis from Ayr x Morton for the Scotland Championship – 15 of January
🏟️ Ayr X Morton – Scotland Championship
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Ayr x Morton right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 287992 matches on the betting prognostics platform Betfellows , in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Ayr x Morton
Should you bet on Ayr?
🔵 Ayr: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 48.59%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 490 times – profiting $539.00;
- And would have lost other 510 times – with a loss of -$510.00 because of them.
Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$29.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 26.65%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.15. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 270 times – profiting $580.50;
- And would lose other 730 times – having a loss of -$730.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$149.50.
Should you bet on Morton?
🔴 Morton: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 24.77% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.35. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 250 times – this would give you a profit of $587.50
- And would lose other 750 times – losing -$750.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$162.50.
Handicaps analysis for the match Ayr x Morton
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Ayr
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Ayr x Morton
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Ayr, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Ayr.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Ayr.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Ayr x Morton
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves