Barakaldo x Lugo Betting tips for March 9 in Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1

Our betting tip for Barakaldo x Lugo, Sunday, 9/3/2025

📅 9/3/2025 11:00

Barakaldo 1.91

X 3.10

Lugo 3.80

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Barakaldo x Lugo:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Barakaldo x Lugo

The main points for the tip for Barakaldo x Lugo: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Barakaldo in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-128.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Lugo in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Barakaldo conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Lugo conceded at least 1 goal(s).

Looking for more options of bookmakers for your bet on Barakaldo x Lugo?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Barakaldo x Lugo, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Barakaldo x Lugo for the Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 – 9 of March

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Barakaldo and Lugo.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1277138 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Barakaldo x Lugo

Is it worth betting on Barakaldo?

🔵 Barakaldo: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 53.87% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.91. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 540 times – profiting $491.40;
• And would lose other 460 times – having a loss of -$460.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$31.40.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 32.11%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 320 times – profiting $672.00;
• And would have lost other 680 times – with a loss of -$680.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$8.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Lugo?

🔴 Lugo: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 14.02% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.80. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 140 times – this would give you a profit of $392.00
• And would lose other 860 times – having a loss of -$860.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$468.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Barakaldo x Lugo

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Barakaldo
⚽ Expected goals: 2.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Barakaldo x Lugo

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Barakaldo, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Barakaldo.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Barakaldo.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Barakaldo x Lugo

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.25 goals.