Belgrano x Boca Juniors Betting tips for April 12 in Argentina Liga Profesional

Our betting tip for Belgrano x Boca Juniors, Saturday, 12/4/2025

📅 12/4/2025 23:30

Belgrano 3.15

X 3.05

Boca Juniors 2.35

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Belgrano x Boca Juniors:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Belgrano x Boca Juniors

Important information for your tip for Belgrano x Boca Juniors: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Belgrano in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-100.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Boca Juniors in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-17.0. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Belgrano scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Boca Juniors, Belgrano scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 Belgrano matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 Belgrano has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Boca Juniors playing at home.

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Analysis from Belgrano x Boca Juniors for the Argentina Liga Profesional – 12 of April

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Belgrano x Boca Juniors right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1302086 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Belgrano x Boca Juniors

Is it a good idea to bet on Belgrano?

🔵 Belgrano: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 25.19%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.15. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 250 times – profiting $537.50;
• And would lose other 750 times – losing -$750.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$212.50.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 30.57%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.05. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 310 times – profiting $635.50;
• And would lose other 690 times – losing -$690.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$54.50.

Is it a good idea to bet on Boca Juniors?

🔴 Boca Juniors: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 44.24% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.35. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 440 times – having a profit of $594.00;
• And would lose other 560 times – having a loss of -$560.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$34.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Handicaps analysis for the match Belgrano x Boca Juniors

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Belgrano
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Belgrano x Boca Juniors

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Belgrano, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.25 Belgrano.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Belgrano x Boca Juniors

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.