Benevento x Crotone Betting tips for March 12 in Italy Serie C Group C

Our betting tip for Benevento x Crotone, Wednesday, 12/3/2025

📅 12/3/2025 19:45

Benevento 2.00

X 3.20

Crotone 3.35

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Benevento x Crotone:

🔮 Benevento wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Benevento, you can win up to $1000.00!

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Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Important information for your tip for Benevento x Crotone: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Benevento in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-333.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Crotone in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $225.0. 👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Crotone scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Crotone, Benevento scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 Benevento matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 Playing as the home team, Benevento conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Crotone. 👉 Benevento has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Crotone playing at home.

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Analysis from Benevento x Crotone for the Italy Serie C Group C – 12 of March

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Benevento x Crotone right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1280306 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Benevento x Crotone

Is betting on Benevento worth it?

🔵 Benevento: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 50.14% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 500 times – having a profit of $500.00;
• And would lose other 500 times – having a loss of -$500.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$0.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 31.23% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 310 times – profiting $682.00;
• And would have lost other 690 times – with a loss of -$690.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$8.00.

Is it worth betting on Crotone?

🔴 Crotone: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 18.63%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.35. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 190 times – this would give you a profit of $446.50
• And would lose other 810 times – having a loss of -$810.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$363.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Benevento x Crotone

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Benevento
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Benevento x Crotone

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Benevento and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Benevento.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Benevento x Crotone

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.