📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Benfica e Castelo Branco x SC Praiense
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Analysis from Benfica e Castelo Branco x SC Praiense for the Portugal Campeonato Nacional – 16 of January
🏟️ Benfica e Castelo Branco X SC Praiense – Portugal Campeonato Nacional
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Benfica e Castelo Branco and SC Praiense.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 288046 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Benfica e Castelo Branco x SC Praiense
Should you bet on Benfica e Castelo Branco?
🔵 Benfica e Castelo Branco: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 65.21%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.57. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 650 times – having a profit of $370.50;
- And would have lost other 350 times – with a loss of -$350.00 because of them.
Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$20.50 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 24.03% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.40. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 240 times – profiting $576.00;
- And would have lost other 760 times – with a loss of -$760.00 because of them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$184.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on SC Praiense?
🔴 SC Praiense: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 10.77%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 5.34. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 110 times – this would give you a profit of $477.56
- And would lose other 890 times – losing -$890.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$412.44.
Handicaps analysis for the match Benfica e Castelo Branco x SC Praiense
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Benfica e Castelo Branco
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Benfica e Castelo Branco x SC Praiense
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Benfica e Castelo Branco, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 Benfica e Castelo Branco. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Benfica e Castelo Branco x SC Praiense
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves