Benfica e Castelo Branco x Sertanense Betting tips for April 13 in Portugal Campeonato Nacional
| 📅 13/4/2025 15:00 |
 Benfica e Castelo Branco1.28 |
X 4.65 |
Sertanense  9.54 |
This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Benfica e Castelo Branco x Sertanense:
🔮 Benfica e Castelo Branco wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Benfica e Castelo Branco, you can win up to $640.00!
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Important information for your tip for Benfica e Castelo Branco x Sertanense: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Benfica e Castelo Branco in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-305.0. |
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Analysis from Benfica e Castelo Branco x Sertanense for the Portugal Campeonato Nacional – 13 of April
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🏟️ Benfica e Castelo Branco X Sertanense – Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Benfica e Castelo Branco and Sertanense.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1302187 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Benfica e Castelo Branco x Sertanense
Is it a good idea to bet on Benfica e Castelo Branco?
🔵 Benfica e Castelo Branco: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 95.86%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.28. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 960 times – having a profit of $268.80;
- And would lose other 40 times – having a loss of -$40.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$228.80.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 3.43% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.65. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 30 times – having a profit of $109.50;
- And would have lost other 970 times – with a loss of -$970.00 because of them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$860.50.
Should you bet on Sertanense?
🔴 Sertanense: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 0.72% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 9.54. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 10 times – profiting $85.40;
- And would have lost other 990 times – with a loss of -$990.00 because of them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$904.60.
Handicaps analysis for the match Benfica e Castelo Branco x Sertanense
The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.75 Benfica e Castelo Branco
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Benfica e Castelo Branco x Sertanense
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.75 Benfica e Castelo Branco, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.5 Benfica e Castelo Branco.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.5 Benfica e Castelo Branco.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Benfica e Castelo Branco x Sertanense
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.75 goals.
