Berceo x Pena Balsamaiso CF Betting tips for November 30 in Spain Tercera Group 16

Our betting tip for Berceo x Pena Balsamaiso CF, Saturday, 30/11/2024

📅 30/11/2024 15:00

Berceo 2.40

X 3.20

Pena Balsamaiso CF 2.62

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Berceo x Pena Balsamaiso CF:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Berceo x Pena Balsamaiso CF

The main points for the tip for Berceo x Pena Balsamaiso CF: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Berceo in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 Berceo did not score any goals in the last 3 matches as home team. 👉 In the last 3 Berceo matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Berceo conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 It is not a good time for Berceo as home team: it comes from 5 losses in a row in its last home matches.

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Analysis from Berceo x Pena Balsamaiso CF for the Spain Tercera Group 16 – 30 of November

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Berceo and Pena Balsamaiso CF.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1229690 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Berceo x Pena Balsamaiso CF

Should you bet on Berceo?

🔵 Berceo: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 30.9%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 310 times – profiting $434.00;
• And would lose other 690 times – having a loss of -$690.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$256.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 32.04% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 320 times – profiting $704.00;
• And would lose other 680 times – having a loss of -$680.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$24.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is betting on Pena Balsamaiso CF worth it?

🔴 Pena Balsamaiso CF: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 37.06% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.62. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 370 times – this would give you a profit of $599.40
• And would lose other 630 times – having a loss of -$630.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$30.60.

Handicaps analysis for the match Berceo x Pena Balsamaiso CF

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Berceo
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Berceo x Pena Balsamaiso CF

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Berceo, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Berceo.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 Berceo.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Berceo x Pena Balsamaiso CF

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.