📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Bhayangkara Surabaya United x Persebaya Surabaya
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Analysis from Bhayangkara Surabaya United x Persebaya Surabaya for the Indonesia Liga 1 – 18 of January
🏟️ Bhayangkara Surabaya United X Persebaya Surabaya – Indonesia Liga 1
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Bhayangkara Surabaya United x Persebaya Surabaya right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 288868 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Bhayangkara Surabaya United x Persebaya Surabaya
Is it a good idea to bet on Bhayangkara Surabaya United?
🔵 Bhayangkara Surabaya United: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 57.3%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.87. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 570 times – profiting $495.90;
- And would lose other 430 times – losing -$430.00 with them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$65.90.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 22.15% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 220 times – profiting $440.00;
- And would lose other 780 times – having a loss of -$780.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$340.00.
Should you bet on Persebaya Surabaya?
🔴 Persebaya Surabaya: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 20.55% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 210 times – having a profit of $630.00;
- And would have lost other 790 times – with a loss of -$790.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$160.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Bhayangkara Surabaya United x Persebaya Surabaya
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Bhayangkara Surabaya United
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Bhayangkara Surabaya United x Persebaya Surabaya
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Bhayangkara Surabaya United, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Bhayangkara Surabaya United.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 Persebaya Surabaya.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Bhayangkara Surabaya United x Persebaya Surabaya
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves