Braganca x Dumiense Betting tips for September 29 in Portugal Campeonato Nacional

Our betting tip for Braganca x Dumiense, Sunday, 29/9/2024

📅 29/9/2024 11:00

Braganca 1.73

X 3.50

Dumiense 4.20

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Braganca x Dumiense:

🔮 Braganca wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Braganca, you can win up to $865.00!

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Important information for your tip for Braganca x Dumiense: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Dumiense in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $248.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Braganca scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Dumiense scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Dumiense matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Dumiense conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Analysis from Braganca x Dumiense for the Portugal Campeonato Nacional – 29 of September

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Braganca x Dumiense right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1190630 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Braganca x Dumiense

Is it worth betting on Braganca?

🔵 Braganca: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 66.82%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.73. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 670 times – this would give you a profit of $489.10
• And would have lost other 330 times – with a loss of -$330.00 because of them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$159.10.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 19.45%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 190 times – having a profit of $475.00;
• And would lose other 810 times – having a loss of -$810.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$335.00.

Is it worth betting on Dumiense?

🔴 Dumiense: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 13.73% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 140 times – having a profit of $448.00;
• And would lose other 860 times – losing -$860.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$412.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Braganca x Dumiense

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Braganca
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Braganca x Dumiense

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Braganca, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Braganca.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Braganca x Dumiense

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.