📊 Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Bristol Rovers x Hartlepool
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Analysis from Bristol Rovers x Hartlepool for the England League 2 – 15 of January
🏟️ Bristol Rovers X Hartlepool – England League 2
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Bristol Rovers x Hartlepool right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 287992 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Bristol Rovers x Hartlepool
Is it worth betting on Bristol Rovers?
🔵 Bristol Rovers: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 50.33% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.08. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 500 times – having a profit of $540.00;
- And would lose other 500 times – losing -$500.00 with them.
Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$40.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 21.7% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.25. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 220 times – this would give you a profit of $495.00
- And would lose other 780 times – losing -$780.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$285.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on Hartlepool?
🔴 Hartlepool: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 27.97% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.58. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 280 times – profiting $722.40;
- And would have lost other 720 times – with a loss of -$720.00 because of them.
Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$2.40, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.
Handicaps analysis for the match Bristol Rovers x Hartlepool
The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Bristol Rovers
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Bristol Rovers x Hartlepool
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Bristol Rovers and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Bristol Rovers.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Bristol Rovers.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Bristol Rovers x Hartlepool
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.
Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves