CA Guemes x Deportivo Maipu Betting tips for June 7 in Argentina Nacional B

Our betting tip for CA Guemes x Deportivo Maipu, Sunday, 7/6/2026

📅 7/6/2026 19:00

CA Guemes 2.25

X 2.80

Deportivo Maipu 3.30

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for CA Guemes x Deportivo Maipu:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for CA Guemes x Deportivo Maipu

Some important points for the tip for CA Guemes x Deportivo Maipu:

👉 If you had bet $100 on CA Guemes in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-2.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Deportivo Maipu in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-80.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Deportivo Maipu scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Deportivo Maipu, CA Guemes scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 CA Guemes has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Deportivo Maipu playing at home.

🤖 ChatGPT analysis on the prediction for CA Guemes vs Deportivo Maipu:

⚽ CA Guemes x Deportivo Maipú (Argentina Nacional B)

1) Fair probabilities (estimated by me)
Based on recent numbers: Güemes at home is 2W-1D-2L in the last 5, with 5 goals for and 7 against; Maipú away shows more offensive volume (8 scored), but also concedes a lot (5 conceded) and has been inconsistent. Overall, I see a slight favoritism for Güemes, but not high confidence in a straight win.

Normalized probabilities:
• CA Guemes win: 0.39 → fair odds ≈ 2.56
• Draw: 0.30 → fair odds ≈ 3.33
• Deportivo Maipú win: 0.31 → fair odds ≈ 3.23

(Comparing with the Bets Kenya model): its model prices the draw as “ok”, but it seems to be overestimating the visitors weakness on the win side (it gives a fairly high away_odds_pred, suggesting Maipú would win less than my estimates). To me, its a more balanced game than the final odd suggests for the away side.

And here comes an important value point:

2) Final odds vs my fair odds + EV (%)

• Home EV = (2.60 / 2.56 – 1)*100 ≈ +1.6%
• Draw EV = (2.80 / 3.33 – 1)*100 ≈ -15.9%
• Away EV = (3.10 / 3.23 – 1)*100 ≈ -4.0%

Value bet?: I would only make a pick if some EV were > +5%. In my calculation, no outcome exceeds +5%. So I would say that, in the current market with the final odds reported, there is no clear value bet.

 

&#x1F4F0 📰Analyzing the news you brought and how it weighs on the match:
Güemes appears near the bottom of the table and alternates home results; recent data also show a more vulnerable defense at home (7 conceded in recent matches). On the other side, Maipú comes in with a recent loss and has also conceded in its last fixtures — so this is not a “locked” scenario to strongly back either side.
Since the news indicates instability on both sides in recent matches/rounds, it makes sense for me to assign a relatively high probability to the draw.

 

&#x1F4C8 📈Teams form/table and need for result:
From the sample you provided: Güemes is well down the standings and likely needs to get points in front of its fans; that usually pushes games to higher intensity without necessarily guaranteeing a win.
Maipú is in a mid-to-upper position relative to the poorer zone in that sample (a “team in form”), so it can play more freely away — reinforcing my view of a balanced match.

At the end of the day: although the Bets Kenya model leans toward a draw given its price close to local median standards, my statistical read places a better range for the home win *or* a tight game — but the final odds are not paying above “fair”. If you were to pick anything despite that for lower/neutral risk among poor options with EV >= +5%, I would tend to avoid a straight bet now — or look for an alternative market outside DNB/draw if available. 

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on CA Guemes x Deportivo Maipu?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on CA Guemes x Deportivo Maipu, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from CA Guemes x Deportivo Maipu for the Argentina Nacional B – 7 of June

Latest news on the match between CA Guemes and Deportivo Maipu

Club Atlético Güemes: Club Atlético Güemes (Santiago del Estero) is competing in the 2026 Primera Nacional and currently sits in 29th place with 21 points from 16 matches (4 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses), with a goal difference of 15 for and 21 against. The teams next fixture will be at home against Almagro on Sunday at 15:30, at Estadio Tres de Febrero, with live coverage on the LPF Play platform.

Deportivo Maipú: Deportivo Maipú has been active in the 2026 Primera Nacional but suffered a 0-1 defeat to Godoy Cruz and a 1-2 home loss to Chacarita Juniors. Lisandro Cabrera scored the visitors goal in the most recent clash, while Chacarita had goals from Lorenzo Brun and Maximiliano Meléndez. As a result, the Mendoza side remains in 16th position, with 18 points from 14 games (5 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses, 19 goals for and 16 against). In the next round, the team will travel to face Güemes (SE), maintaining the status of “team of the moment” under coach Mariano Echeverría. Home matches are played at Estadio Omar Higinio Sperdutti and can be followed live on LPF Play.

Table analysis for the match between CA Guemes and Deportivo Maipu

CA Guemes: In the Primera Nacional 2026 – Group B (matchday 16 of 36), Guemes sits in 17th with 15 points and a -7 goal difference, already inside the area marked as Relegation. This makes the fixture directly tied to the fight against relegation: a win can reduce the gap to the teams above, while another stumble tends to increase the risk in the final rounds. Being in the lower part of the table, the match has a decisive/high character for maintaining chances (especially since it is a clash outside the relegation zone).

Deportivo Maipu: Also in the Primera Nacional 2026 – Group B, Maipu is in 6th with 21 points and a +4 goal difference, placed in the Promotion Playoffs zone. Thus, the match acts as a key to continue the fight: taking points against an opponent theoretically closer to the risk of relegation is important to maintain/advance within the group and try to close in on the higher positions that offer a more favourable path. A loss may not eliminate them, but it increases the pressure in the next matches to recover ground.

Summary: The weight of the game leans towards Guemes 🎯 (because they are in the relegation zone and need to take points to avoid distancing themselves from their direct rivals). For Maipu, the importance is also high, but more in the sense of preserving the route towards the playoffs and preventing the gap to the top teams from shrinking due to stumbles. Overall, it is a match with impact mainly on Guemes survival and maintaining Maipus objectives. ⚽

Odds and handicap movements for CA Guemes x Deportivo Maipu

One step many punters overlook is analysing the movement of odds and the handicap over time. Doing this gives a clearer idea of market expectations for the match between CA Guemes x Deportivo Maipu.

Check the summary below that compares opening odds with current odds across the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for CA Guemes x Deportivo Maipu

When the best bet on CA Guemes x Deportivo Maipu is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1557170 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Is betting on CA Guemes worth it?

🔵 CA Guemes: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 39.57% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.25. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 400 times – profiting $500.00;
• And would lose other 600 times – losing -$600.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$100.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 35.03% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.80. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 350 times – having a profit of $630.00;
• And would lose other 650 times – losing -$650.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$20.00.

Is betting on Deportivo Maipu worth it?

🔴 Deportivo Maipu: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 25.4% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.30. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 250 times – this would give you a profit of $575.00
• And would lose other 750 times – having a loss of -$750.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$175.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match CA Guemes x Deportivo Maipu

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 CA Guemes
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for CA Guemes x Deportivo Maipu

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 CA Guemes, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 CA Guemes.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Deportivo Maipu.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for CA Guemes x Deportivo Maipu

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the tip for CA Guemes x Deportivo Maipu