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Home » Predictions » Others » Caen x SC Bastia Betting tips for November 2 in France Ligue 2
Saturday, 02 November 2024, 13h00 France Ligue 2
Caen Caen
PREDICTION Caen wins Probability 49% 1 X 2
SC Bastia SC Bastia
ODD: @2.17 Don't miss this prediction!

Caen x SC Bastia Betting tips for November 2 in France Ligue 2

Our betting tip for Caen x SC Bastia, Saturday, 2/11/2024
📅 2/11/2024
13:00
Caen Caen
2.17
X
3.15
SC Bastia SC Bastia
3.30

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Caen x SC Bastia:

🔮 Caen wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Caen, you can win up to $1085.00!

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The main points for the tip for Caen x SC Bastia:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Caen in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-105.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on SC Bastia in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-280.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against SC Bastia, Caen scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Caen conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Caen has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against SC Bastia playing at home.

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Summary

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Analysis from Caen x SC Bastia for the France Ligue 2 – 2 of November

🏟️ Caen X SC Bastia – France Ligue 2
📅 2 of November, 2024 – 13:00
🔵 Caen – Winning probability: 49.30% | Fair line: 2.03
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 28.15% | Fair line: 3.55
🔴 SC Bastia – Winning probability: 22.55% | Fair line: 4.43
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Caen
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.00 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Caen x SC Bastia right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1213968 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Caen x SC Bastia

Should you bet on Caen?

🔵 Caen: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 49.3% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.17. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 490 times – this would give you a profit of $573.30
  • And would lose other 510 times – having a loss of -$510.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$63.30.

Should you bet on draw?

draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 28.15%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.15. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 280 times – profiting $602.00;
  • And would lose other 720 times – losing -$720.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$118.00.

Should you bet on SC Bastia?

🔴 SC Bastia: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 22.55% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.30. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 230 times – having a profit of $529.00;
  • And would lose other 770 times – losing -$770.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$241.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Caen x SC Bastia

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Caen
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Caen x SC Bastia

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Caen, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Caen.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Caen.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Caen x SC Bastia

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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