Caersws x Denbigh Town Betting tips for January 11 in Wales Championship North

Our betting tip for Caersws x Denbigh Town, Saturday, 11/1/2025

📅 11/1/2025 14:00

Caersws 2.11

X 3.59

Denbigh Town 2.82

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Caersws x Denbigh Town:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Caersws x Denbigh Town

Some important points for the tip for Caersws x Denbigh Town: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Caersws in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-152.0. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Denbigh Town scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 Denbigh Town matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Caersws conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Caersws conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Denbigh Town.

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Analysis from Caersws x Denbigh Town for the Wales Championship North – 11 of January

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Caersws x Denbigh Town right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1244516 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Caersws x Denbigh Town

Is it a good idea to bet on Caersws?

🔵 Caersws: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 49.51% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.11. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 500 times – this would give you a profit of $555.00
• And would lose other 500 times – losing -$500.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$55.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 21.62% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.59. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 220 times – having a profit of $569.80;
• And would lose other 780 times – having a loss of -$780.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$210.20.

Is it a good idea to bet on Denbigh Town?

🔴 Denbigh Town: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 28.87%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.82. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 290 times – this would give you a profit of $527.80
• And would lose other 710 times – losing -$710.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$182.20.

Handicaps analysis for the match Caersws x Denbigh Town

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Caersws
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Caersws x Denbigh Town

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Caersws, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Caersws.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Caersws x Denbigh Town

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.00 goals.