Cardiff x Luton Betting tips for March 11 in England Championship

Our betting tip for Cardiff x Luton, Tuesday, 11/3/2025

📅 11/3/2025 19:45

Cardiff 2.40

X 3.22

Luton 3.00

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Cardiff x Luton:

🔮 Tied Match
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Important information for your tip for Cardiff x Luton: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Cardiff in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $245.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Luton in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 Luton did not score any goals in the last 3 matches as away team. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Cardiff scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 9 matches as the away team, Luton conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 It is not a good time for Luton as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

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Analysis from Cardiff x Luton for the England Championship – 11 of March

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Cardiff x Luton right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1279005 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Cardiff x Luton

Is it a good idea to bet on Cardiff?

🔵 Cardiff: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 39.15%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 390 times – having a profit of $546.00;
• And would lose other 610 times – losing -$610.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$64.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 37.32% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.22. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 370 times – this would give you a profit of $821.40
• And would lose other 630 times – having a loss of -$630.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$191.40.

Is betting on Luton worth it?

🔴 Luton: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 23.53% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 240 times – having a profit of $480.00;
• And would have lost other 760 times – with a loss of -$760.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$280.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Cardiff x Luton

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Cardiff
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Cardiff x Luton

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Cardiff and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Cardiff.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 Cardiff.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Cardiff x Luton

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.