Castelfidardo x Recanatese Betting tips for March 9 in Italy Serie D

Our betting tip for Castelfidardo x Recanatese, Sunday, 9/3/2025

📅 9/3/2025 13:30

Castelfidardo 2.15

X 3.00

Recanatese 3.20

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Castelfidardo x Recanatese:

🔮 Castelfidardo wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Castelfidardo, you can win up to $1075.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Castelfidardo x Recanatese: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Castelfidardo in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-149.0. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Recanatese scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Castelfidardo matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Recanatese conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Castelfidardo conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Recanatese.

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Analysis from Castelfidardo x Recanatese for the Italy Serie D – 9 of March

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Castelfidardo x Recanatese right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1277138 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Castelfidardo x Recanatese

Should you bet on Castelfidardo?

🔵 Castelfidardo: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 51.72%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.15. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 520 times – this would give you a profit of $598.00
• And would have lost other 480 times – with a loss of -$480.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$118.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 27.66% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 280 times – this would give you a profit of $560.00
• And would lose other 720 times – losing -$720.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$160.00.

Is betting on Recanatese worth it?

🔴 Recanatese: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 20.63%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 210 times – having a profit of $462.00;
• And would lose other 790 times – losing -$790.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$328.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Castelfidardo x Recanatese

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Castelfidardo
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Castelfidardo x Recanatese

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Castelfidardo, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Castelfidardo.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Castelfidardo.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Castelfidardo x Recanatese

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.