| 📅 19/1/2022 13:30 |
 Castelfidardo2.76 |
X 2.80 |
San Nicolò  2.54 |
This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Castelfidardo x San Nicolò:
🔮 Tied Match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1400.00!
📊 Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for Castelfidardo x San Nicolò
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Analysis from Castelfidardo x San Nicolò for the Italy Serie D – 19 of January
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🏟️ Castelfidardo X San Nicolò – Italy Serie D |
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Castelfidardo and San Nicolò.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 289741 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Castelfidardo x San Nicolò
Should you bet on Castelfidardo?
🔵 Castelfidardo: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 32.51% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.76. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 330 times – having a profit of $580.80;
- And would lose other 670 times – losing -$670.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$89.20.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 41.09%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.80. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 410 times – this would give you a profit of $738.00
- And would lose other 590 times – losing -$590.00 with them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$148.00.
Is it worth betting on San Nicolò?
🔴 San Nicolò: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 26.4% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.54. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 260 times – having a profit of $399.10;
- And would lose other 740 times – losing -$740.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$340.90.
Handicaps analysis for the match Castelfidardo x San Nicolò
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Castelfidardo
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Castelfidardo x San Nicolò
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 Castelfidardo and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Castelfidardo.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.0 San Nicolò.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Castelfidardo x San Nicolò
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.
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Written by
Humberto Alves
Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.
> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
