📊 Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for CD Luis Angel Firpo x Alianza FC
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Analysis from CD Luis Angel Firpo x Alianza FC for the El Salvador Apertura – 21 of November
🏟️ CD Luis Angel Firpo X Alianza FC – El Salvador Apertura
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for CD Luis Angel Firpo x Alianza FC right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1024310 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for CD Luis Angel Firpo x Alianza FC
Should you bet on CD Luis Angel Firpo?
🔵 CD Luis Angel Firpo: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.61%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.70. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 250 times – profiting $425.00;
- And would lose other 750 times – having a loss of -$750.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$325.00.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 35.95% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 360 times – this would give you a profit of $720.00
- And would have lost other 640 times – with a loss of -$640.00 because of them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$80.00.
Is betting on Alianza FC worth it?
🔴 Alianza FC: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 39.44% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.48. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 390 times – this would give you a profit of $577.20
- And would have lost other 610 times – with a loss of -$610.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$32.80.
Handicaps analysis for the match CD Luis Angel Firpo x Alianza FC
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 CD Luis Angel Firpo
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for CD Luis Angel Firpo x Alianza FC
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 CD Luis Angel Firpo and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 CD Luis Angel Firpo.
Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for CD Luis Angel Firpo x Alianza FC
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.
Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves