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Home » Predictions » CD Mostoles URJC x Burgos Betting tips for October 30 in Spain Copa del Rey
Wednesday, 30 October 2024, 18h30 Spain Copa del Rey
CD Mostoles URJC CD Mostoles URJC
PREDICTION Burgos Wins Probability 92% 1 X 2
Burgos Burgos
ODD: @1.33 Don't miss this prediction!

CD Mostoles URJC x Burgos Betting tips for October 30 in Spain Copa del Rey

Our betting tip for CD Mostoles URJC x Burgos, Wednesday, 30/10/2024
📅 30/10/2024
18:30
CD Mostoles URJC CD Mostoles URJC
10.00
X
4.26
Burgos Burgos
1.33

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for CD Mostoles URJC x Burgos:

🔮 Burgos wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Burgos, you can win up to $665.00!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com
 

The main points for the tip for CD Mostoles URJC x Burgos:

👉 If you had bet $100 on CD Mostoles URJC in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Burgos in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $230.0.
👉 Burgos did not score any goals in the last 3 matches as away team.
👉 In the last 6 CD Mostoles URJC matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 5 Burgos matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, CD Mostoles URJC conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Burgos conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 It is not a good time for Burgos as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

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Summary

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Analysis from CD Mostoles URJC x Burgos for the Spain Copa del Rey – 30 of October

🏟️ CD Mostoles URJC X Burgos – Spain Copa del Rey
📅 30 of October, 2024 – 18:30
🔵 CD Mostoles URJC – Winning probability: 3.12% | Fair line: 32.04
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 4.82% | Fair line: 20.76
🔴 Burgos – Winning probability: 92.06% | Fair line: 1.09
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.5 CD Mostoles URJC
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.25 corner kicks

When the best bet on CD Mostoles URJC x Burgos is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1212778 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for CD Mostoles URJC x Burgos

Is betting on CD Mostoles URJC worth it?

🔵 CD Mostoles URJC: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 3.12% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 10.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 30 times – this would give you a profit of $270.00
  • And would lose other 970 times – losing -$970.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$700.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 4.82% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.26. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 50 times – this would give you a profit of $163.00
  • And would have lost other 950 times – with a loss of -$950.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$787.00.

Is it worth betting on Burgos?

🔴 Burgos: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 92.06% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.33. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 920 times – having a profit of $303.60;
  • And would have lost other 80 times – with a loss of -$80.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$223.60.

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Handicaps analysis for the match CD Mostoles URJC x Burgos

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.5 CD Mostoles URJC
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for CD Mostoles URJC x Burgos

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +1.5 CD Mostoles URJC and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +1.25 CD Mostoles URJC.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.25 Burgos.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for CD Mostoles URJC x Burgos

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 1.00, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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