📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Central Coast Mariners x Melbourne Victory
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Analysis from Central Coast Mariners x Melbourne Victory for the Australia A-League – 22 of January
🏟️ Central Coast Mariners X Melbourne Victory – Australia A-League
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Central Coast Mariners x Melbourne Victory right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 290605 matches on the betting prognostics platform Betfellows , in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Central Coast Mariners x Melbourne Victory
Is betting on Central Coast Mariners worth it?
🔵 Central Coast Mariners: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 43.28% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.30. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 430 times – this would give you a profit of $559.00
- And would lose other 570 times – losing -$570.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$11.00.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 20.62% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.38. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 210 times – this would give you a profit of $500.85
- And would lose other 790 times – losing -$790.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$289.15.
Should you bet on Melbourne Victory?
🔴 Melbourne Victory: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 36.1% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.75. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 360 times – profiting $630.00;
- And would lose other 640 times – having a loss of -$640.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$10.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Central Coast Mariners x Melbourne Victory
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Central Coast Mariners
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Central Coast Mariners x Melbourne Victory
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Central Coast Mariners, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Central Coast Mariners.
Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Central Coast Mariners x Melbourne Victory
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves