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Home » Predictions » Others » Cerro Largo x Club Atletico Progreso Betting tips for February 7 in Uruguay Apertura
Friday, 07 February 2025, 22h00 Uruguay Apertura
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo
PREDICTION Cerro Largo wins Probability 52% 1 X 2
Club Atletico Progreso Club Atletico Progreso
ODD: @2.02 Don't miss this prediction!

Cerro Largo x Club Atletico Progreso Betting tips for February 7 in Uruguay Apertura

Our betting tip for Cerro Largo x Club Atletico Progreso, Friday, 7/2/2025
📅 7/2/2025
22:00
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo
2.02
X
3.00
Club Atletico Progreso Club Atletico Progreso
3.83

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Cerro Largo x Club Atletico Progreso:

🔮 Cerro Largo wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Cerro Largo, you can win up to $1010.00!

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The main points for the tip for Cerro Largo x Club Atletico Progreso:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Cerro Largo in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $245.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Club Atletico Progreso in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Club Atletico Progreso, Cerro Largo scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Cerro Largo conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Cerro Largo has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Club Atletico Progreso playing at home.

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Summary

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Analysis from Cerro Largo x Club Atletico Progreso for the Uruguay Apertura – 7 of February

🏟️ Cerro Largo X Club Atletico Progreso – Uruguay Apertura
📅 7 of February, 2025 – 22:00
🔵 Cerro Largo – Winning probability: 52.86% | Fair line: 1.89
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 20.30% | Fair line: 4.93
🔴 Club Atletico Progreso – Winning probability: 26.84% | Fair line: 3.73
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Cerro Largo
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.25 corner kicks

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Cerro Largo and Club Atletico Progreso.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1258741 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Cerro Largo x Club Atletico Progreso

Is betting on Cerro Largo worth it?

🔵 Cerro Largo: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 52.86% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.02. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 530 times – this would give you a profit of $540.60
  • And would lose other 470 times – having a loss of -$470.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$70.60.

Is betting on draw worth it?

draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 20.3%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 200 times – having a profit of $400.00;
  • And would have lost other 800 times – with a loss of -$800.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$400.00.

Should you bet on Club Atletico Progreso?

🔴 Club Atletico Progreso: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 26.84% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.83. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 270 times – having a profit of $764.10;
  • And would lose other 730 times – losing -$730.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$34.10.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Cerro Largo x Club Atletico Progreso

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Cerro Largo
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Cerro Largo x Club Atletico Progreso

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Cerro Largo, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Cerro Largo.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 Club Atletico Progreso.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Cerro Largo x Club Atletico Progreso

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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