Cesena x Spezia Betting tips for March 15 in Italy Serie B

Our betting tip for Cesena x Spezia, Saturday, 15/3/2025

📅 15/3/2025 14:00

Cesena 3.61

X 3.00

Spezia 2.10

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Cesena x Spezia:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Cesena x Spezia

Some important points for the tip for Cesena x Spezia: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Cesena in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-280.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Spezia in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-92.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Cesena scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Spezia scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Spezia, Cesena scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 Cesena matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 Spezia matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 4 road matches, Spezia has not lost any of them.

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Analysis from Cesena x Spezia for the Italy Serie B – 15 of March

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Cesena x Spezia right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1281364 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Cesena x Spezia

Should you bet on Cesena?

🔵 Cesena: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 20.6% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.61. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 210 times – having a profit of $548.10;
• And would have lost other 790 times – with a loss of -$790.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$241.90.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 33.94% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 340 times – profiting $680.00;
• And would lose other 660 times – having a loss of -$660.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$20.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Should you bet on Spezia?

🔴 Spezia: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 45.46% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.10. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 450 times – this would give you a profit of $495.00
• And would have lost other 550 times – with a loss of -$550.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$55.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Cesena x Spezia

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Cesena
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Cesena x Spezia

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Cesena, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.25 Cesena.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.25 Cesena.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Cesena x Spezia

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.