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Home Β» Predictions Β» Others Β» Citta di Fasano x Brindisi Betting tips for March 9 in Italy Serie D
Sunday, 09 March 2025, 14h30 Italy Serie D
Citta di Fasano Citta di Fasano
PREDICTION No tip
Brindisi Brindisi
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Citta di Fasano x Brindisi Betting tips for March 9 in Italy Serie D

Our betting tip for Citta di Fasano x Brindisi, Sunday, 9/3/2025
πŸ“… 9/3/2025
14:30
Citta di Fasano Citta di Fasano
2.02
X
3.00
Brindisi Brindisi
3.54

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Citta di Fasano x Brindisi:

πŸ‘Ž Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Citta di Fasano x Brindisi

Important information for your tip for Citta di Fasano x Brindisi:

πŸ‘‰ In the last 6 matches as the home team, Citta di Fasano scored at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ In the last 4 matches as the away team, Brindisi scored at least 2 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ In the last 4 matches as the home team against Brindisi, Citta di Fasano scored at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ In the last 4 Brindisi matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
πŸ‘‰ Citta di Fasano has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Brindisi playing at home.

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Summary

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Analysis from Citta di Fasano x Brindisi for the Italy Serie D – 9 of March

🏟️ Citta di Fasano X Brindisi – Italy Serie D
πŸ“… 9 of March, 2025 – 14:30
πŸ”΅ Citta di Fasano – Winning probability: 17.33% | Fair line: 5.77
βšͺ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 27.48% | Fair line: 3.64
πŸ”΄ Brindisi – Winning probability: 55.19% | Fair line: 1.81
βš– Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Citta di Fasano
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
β›³ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks

When the best bet on Citta di Fasano x Brindisi is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1277138 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Citta di Fasano x Brindisi

Should you bet on Citta di Fasano?

πŸ”΅ Citta di Fasano: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 17.33%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.02. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 170 times – profiting $173.40;
  • And would lose other 830 times – losing -$830.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of πŸ’°-$656.60.

Is betting on draw worth it?

βšͺ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 27.48% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would have hit 270 times – having a profit of $540.00;
  • And would have lost other 730 times – with a loss of -$730.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of πŸ’°-$190.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Brindisi?

πŸ”΄ Brindisi: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 55.19% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.54. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 550 times – having a profit of $1397.00;
  • And would lose other 450 times – having a loss of -$450.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just πŸ’°$947.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Citta di Fasano x Brindisi

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

βš– Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Citta di Fasano
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Citta di Fasano x Brindisi

βš– Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Citta di Fasano, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Citta di Fasano.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Brindisi.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Citta di Fasano x Brindisi

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.

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Written by
Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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