| ๐
19/1/2022 13:30 |
 Citta Di Varese1.53 |
X 3.77 |
SC Caronnese  5.00 |
This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Citta Di Varese x SC Caronnese:
๐ฎ Tied Match
๐ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1885.00!
๐ Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for Citta Di Varese x SC Caronnese
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Analysis from Citta Di Varese x SC Caronnese for the Italy Serie D – 19 of January
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๐๏ธ Citta Di Varese X SC Caronnese – Italy Serie D |
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Citta Di Varese x SC Caronnese right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 289741 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Citta Di Varese x SC Caronnese
Is it a good idea to bet on Citta Di Varese?
๐ต Citta Di Varese: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 49.47%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.53. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 490 times – profiting $259.70;
- And would lose other 510 times – losing -$510.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of ๐ฐ-$250.30.
Is it worth betting on draw?
โช draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 31.59% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.77. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 320 times – profiting $886.40;
- And would lose other 680 times – losing -$680.00 with them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of ๐ฐ$206.40.
Is it worth betting on SC Caronnese?
๐ด SC Caronnese: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 18.94% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 190 times – profiting $760.00;
- And would have lost other 810 times – with a loss of -$810.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of ๐ฐ-$50.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Citta Di Varese x SC Caronnese
Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
โ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Citta Di Varese
โฝ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Citta Di Varese x SC Caronnese
โ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Citta Di Varese, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.0 Citta Di Varese.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.0 SC Caronnese.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Citta Di Varese x SC Caronnese
โฝ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.
The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.
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Written by
Humberto Alves
Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.
> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
