Covadonga x Condal Betting tips for April 16 in Spain Tercera Group 2

Our betting tip for Covadonga x Condal, Wednesday, 16/4/2025

📅 16/4/2025 17:30

Covadonga 1.19

X 5.46

Condal 11.11

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Covadonga x Condal:

🔮 Covadonga wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Covadonga, you can win up to $595.00!

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The main points for the tip for Covadonga x Condal: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Covadonga in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $221.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Condal in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-330.0. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Covadonga scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Condal, Covadonga scored at least 4 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Condal matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 4 head-to-head matches between Covadonga x Condal, with Covadonga as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 Covadonga is good playing home: it has 6 wins in a row in its last matches at home. 👉 Covadonga has won all the last 4 matches playing at home against Condal.

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Analysis from Covadonga x Condal for the Spain Tercera Group 2 – 16 of April

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Covadonga and Condal.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1304980 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Covadonga x Condal

Is it a good idea to bet on Covadonga?

🔵 Covadonga: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 95.25% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.19. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 950 times – having a profit of $180.50;
• And would have lost other 50 times – with a loss of -$50.00 because of them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$130.50.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 3.81% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.46. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 40 times – profiting $178.40;
• And would lose other 960 times – losing -$960.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$781.60.

Should you bet on Condal?

🔴 Condal: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 0.94%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 11.11. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 10 times – having a profit of $101.10;
• And would lose other 990 times – losing -$990.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$888.90.

Handicaps analysis for the match Covadonga x Condal

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 Covadonga
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Covadonga x Condal

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.5 Covadonga, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.75 Covadonga.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.75 Condal.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Covadonga x Condal

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.