CRB x America MG Betting tips for September 29 in Brazil Serie B

Our betting tip for CRB x America MG, Sunday, 29/9/2024

📅 29/9/2024 16:00

CRB 2.62

X 2.95

America MG 2.70

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for CRB x America MG:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for CRB x America MG

Important information for your tip for CRB x America MG: 👉 If you had bet $100 on CRB in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 If you had bet $100 on America MG in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-295.0. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, CRB conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Analysis from CRB x America MG for the Brazil Serie B – 29 of September

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for CRB x America MG right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1190630 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for CRB x America MG

Is it worth betting on CRB?

🔵 CRB: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 30.41% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.62. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 300 times – having a profit of $486.00;
• And would have lost other 700 times – with a loss of -$700.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$214.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 33.61% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.95. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 340 times – this would give you a profit of $663.00
• And would have lost other 660 times – with a loss of -$660.00 because of them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$3.00. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Should you bet on America MG?

🔴 America MG: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 35.98% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.70. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 360 times – profiting $612.00;
• And would lose other 640 times – having a loss of -$640.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$28.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match CRB x America MG

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 CRB
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for CRB x America MG

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 CRB and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 CRB.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.0 America MG.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for CRB x America MG

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.