📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Cremonese x Como
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Analysis from Cremonese x Como for the Italy Serie B – 15 of January
🏟️ Cremonese X Como – Italy Serie B
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Cremonese x Como right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 287992 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Cremonese x Como
Is it worth betting on Cremonese?
🔵 Cremonese: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 79.33% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.76. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 790 times – this would give you a profit of $600.40
- And would have lost other 210 times – with a loss of -$210.00 because of them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$390.40.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 14.49%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.45. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 140 times – having a profit of $343.00;
- And would lose other 860 times – having a loss of -$860.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$517.00.
Is betting on Como worth it?
🔴 Como: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 6.18% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 60 times – having a profit of $210.00;
- And would have lost other 940 times – with a loss of -$940.00 because of them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$730.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Cremonese x Como
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Cremonese
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Cremonese x Como
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Cremonese and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Cremonese.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Cremonese.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Cremonese x Como
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves