Defensor Sporting x Deportivo Maldonado Betting tips for September 29 in Uruguay Clausura

Our betting tip for Defensor Sporting x Deportivo Maldonado, Sunday, 29/9/2024

📅 29/9/2024 17:30

Defensor Sporting 1.75

X 3.45

Deportivo Maldonado 4.33

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Defensor Sporting x Deportivo Maldonado:

🔮 Defensor Sporting wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Defensor Sporting, you can win up to $875.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Important information for your tip for Defensor Sporting x Deportivo Maldonado: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Defensor Sporting in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Deportivo Maldonado in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-180.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Deportivo Maldonado, Defensor Sporting scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 7 Deportivo Maldonado matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Defensor Sporting conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Defensor Sporting conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Deportivo Maldonado. 👉 Defensor Sporting has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Deportivo Maldonado playing at home. 👉 It is not a good time for Defensor Sporting as home team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last home matches.

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Analysis from Defensor Sporting x Deportivo Maldonado for the Uruguay Clausura – 29 of September

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Defensor Sporting and Deportivo Maldonado.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1191083 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Defensor Sporting x Deportivo Maldonado

Should you bet on Defensor Sporting?

🔵 Defensor Sporting: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 66.33%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.75. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 660 times – having a profit of $495.00;
• And would have lost other 340 times – with a loss of -$340.00 because of them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$155.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 22.24% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.45. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 220 times – profiting $539.00;
• And would lose other 780 times – having a loss of -$780.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$241.00.

Should you bet on Deportivo Maldonado?

🔴 Deportivo Maldonado: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 11.43%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.33. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 110 times – profiting $366.30;
• And would have lost other 890 times – with a loss of -$890.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$523.70.

Handicaps analysis for the match Defensor Sporting x Deportivo Maldonado

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Defensor Sporting
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Defensor Sporting x Deportivo Maldonado

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Defensor Sporting and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Defensor Sporting.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Defensor Sporting.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Defensor Sporting x Deportivo Maldonado

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.